how do you think ludendorff made such an accurate predictionlow income nonprofits

Know the teams at least on a basic level. Now we'll check out the proven way to improve the accuracy of a model: 1. Many companies make decisions based primarily on gut feeling. In making predictions, students use critical thinking and problem solving skills. As important. Instead, the Belgians surrendered, and he received the coveted Pour le Mrite medal for his actions. 7 Which is the best example of customer feedback? Predictions are often written in the form of "if, and, then" statements, as in, "if my hypothesis is true, and I were to do this test, then this is what I will observe.". Jews were not treated much differently than other ethnic groups. Explain why Mexico opened its border to Anglo migration to Coahuila y Tejas and how those events eve, Relate the reasons and methods used in the relocation of Indians to the West side of the Mississippi. Ludendorff moved back to Germany and participated in two attempts to unseat elected officials; the second attempt, in 1923, was organized by a young political agitator named Adolf Hitler (1889-1945). Predicting encourages children to actively think ahead and ask questions. He was an early and enthusiastic proponent of Dolchstoss, the infamous social legend that Communists and Jews had somehow managed to stab an unbeaten German army in the back and cause the Reichs downfall. From the chiefs of staff he visited, Ludendorff demanded complete and accurate briefings rather than favorable report[s] made to order. Based on a thorough lessons-learned analysis, he then fundamentally recast the German armys defensive philosophy. Then assign a probability to that range - are you 70% sure the date lies in that range, or 90% sure? Which political, cultural, and economic characteristics helped make fascism an authoritarian, .What characteristics of Fascism might make it attractive to people during times of crisis such as. Ludendorff is a rural Canadian border town in the Midwestern state of North Yankton. However, it was his role in the east in 1916 that brought Ludendorff to greater prominance. Yet even as the situation stabilized in East Prussia, matters worsened elsewhere in the East. Its tempting to base your prediction on the first intuition that occurs to you. Even while in command, Ludendorff had told senior officers that those circles [meaning liberal politicians and their allies] must be brought into the governmentwhom we have above all to thank for having brought us to this point.. Also that fall, the French launched a sharp offensive that would regain much of the ground they had lost at Verdun. One German historical mission even worked to document and preserve old wooden synagogues. Students are able to make predictions about a story, based on what they have already heard, read, or seen. Determine the GPA that matches your impression of the evidence. The second message is that expert predictors developed their expertise by relying on tons of corrective feedback to shape their forecasts. Answer I solemnly (predict) that this accursed man will plunge our Reich into the abyss and bring our nation into inconceivable misery." The Kriegsakademie was so rigorous that most cadets washed out of the first and second-year courses. Collect student answers, and confirm and correct as needed. It's wind. For instance, if you're trying to predict the chance that your friend cancels on you for dinner tonight, you can start by asking "how often does this friend cancel plans?" How does Target make such accurate predictions? Their impressive battlefield gains were completely devoid of strategic and operational benchmarks, and they constructed no defenses to maintain the greatly expanded front. See Clari in action Masters of Revenue: The Importance of Sales Forecasting Accuracy Masters of Revenue: Carl Eschenbach on Sales Forecasting This theory made Ludendorff popular with the nationalists (supporters of state power) who were coming to power in Germany during the early 1920s. There are three certainties in this world: Death, Taxes and Homework Assignments. This work is dedicated to the effective solution of such problems. Step #1: Clean Bad Data The principal of Garbage In, Garbage Out applies to forecasting as it does with many things. 2. There are 3 main approaches to solving a problem: Intuitive Analytical Experimental For gut feel, there's really no clear, easily communicated reasoning behind the decision. Think hard about how confident you are that the date really falls within that range, keeping in mind that people usually give ranges that are too narrow. 1. View the list of all donors. Hitler and many of his inner circle had distanced themselves from Ludendorff over his increasingly erratic and bizarre beliefs. The cookie is used to store the user consent for the cookies in the category "Analytics". Fleeing soldiers tried to discourage reinforcements from restoring the situation. Furthermore, we have a full podcast episode about forecasting the things that matter that you may like: Click here to access other streaming options and show notes. It is important for teachers to encourage children to record clues that either support or deny their predictions. They exploited the region's resources and meddled in political matters. Ludendorff left the Eastern army in place for two reasons: first, because troops were deserting in large numbers as they moved from east to west, and second, because throughout the spring and summer of 1918 Ludendorff continued to pursue megalomaniacal goals in the East that rivaled Hitlers ambitions two decades later. Its called outcome biasan error made in evaluating the quality of a decision when the outcome of that decision is already known. 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You can now try the Calibrate Your Judgment tool on ClearerThinking.org by clicking here! Ludendorff fled to neutral Sweden. So, while subsequent German offensives inflicted devastating losses on the tsarist enemy, they failed to achieve overall victory. The rather benign treatment of Jews in this context played a role in later Jewish deliberations on responses to the German invasion of the east in World War II. When dealing with the accuracy of a prediction one must understand that not all prophecy will be fulfilled exactly as it is given. We also use third-party cookies that help us analyze and understand how you use this website. The more general and ambiguous the prophecy, the greater the chance that something, somewhere, will eventually occur that bears enough of a resemblance that it will seem like the prophecy was an accurate prediction. On January 9, 1917, Bethmann, Ludendorff, and Hindenburg met at Pless Castle in Silesia (now Pszczyna, Poland) to discuss the resumption of unrestricted submarine warfare against all merchant shipping, neutral as well as belligerent. From that point on, Ludendorff became the true driving force behind the German war effort, as Hindenburg deferred to him on virtually every decision. When the model says a patient need not be screened, its right 91 out of 95 times (accuracy of 95.8%). And they were to play a major role in German defensive successes on the Western Front in 1917: first, in defeating the Nivelle Offensive in April, nearly breaking the French army in the process; and second, in thwarting Field Marshal Sir Douglas Haigs heavy-handed offensive at Passchendaele, Belgium, in late summer and fall. By now the culture of both the Kriegsakademie and the General Staff had shifted from the deep strategic analysis that marked the writings of Prussian generals Gerhard von Scharnhorst, August von Gneisenau, and Carl von Clausewitz to an emphasis on such technical aspects as planning, tactics and mobilization. The selection of a method depends on many factorsthe context of the forecast, the relevance and availability of historical data, the degree of accuracy desirable, the time period to be forecast . In demeanor, he was aggressive and outspoken. One such organization that has to make many challenging decisions in an uncertain world is the Open Philanthropy Project, whose mission is to use research and grantmaking to improve lives as effectively as possible. He sought input from both senior officers and frontline commanders. 10 predictions that Watkins got right. By confining the fighting to the borderlands, where the Russians faced serious logistical difficulties, Falkenhayn may well have set the stage for the eventual political collapse and defeat of tsarist Russia in 1917. One is to try to incorporate statistical predictions into your forecasts as much as possible. Some characteristics were that fascism provided stability because everything was controlled by one person, so there would be no unstable democracies/coalitions People hoped that Fascism would restore economic stability, etc. http://specialed.about.com/od/readingliteracy/a/Reading-Comprehension-Skills-Making-Predictions.htm, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nsLD33rczFA. Collect data for the relevant variables. But thereafter the weight of British artillery coupled with unimaginative German tactics, which demanded that soldiers hold every foot of ground, led to equally heavy casualties among the Germanslosses they could ill afford. Having more data is always a good idea. A fire chief might get. The deep dugouts and cellars often became fatal mantraps. Compare and contrast Jeffersonian and Jacksonian Democracy. 12. What were some similarities between racism in Nazi Germany and in the United States, 1920s-1940s? Most people say, The odds are pretty good, go have the surgery. But if you told those same people that the patient died during the procedure, most would think the doctors reasoning was poor. Sign up to receive weekly news and trends from ProductCraft. Every day each of us makes judgments about the future in the face of uncertainty. To get started, you simply have to make a free account (so that it can track your progress over time). The defense of our infantry had become so flabby that the massed attacks of the enemy always succeeded. As the fighting reached its climax in early June, Russia launched a major offensive against Austria, which promptly collapsed. Worse followed. In 1925, he ran for German president against his former superior, Paul von Hindenburg and after his loss dabbled in radical right-wing politics. Booksource. We could stand that, but the question how this, and the progressive falling off of our fighting power of which it was symptomatic, was to be prevented was of immense importance. The army soon found itself battling strikes, fomented by the military spending demands Ludendorff was putting on the economy, and food riots, exacerbated by the governments flawed agricultural policies. For example, what historical inquiry, Discuss what responsibilities, if any, citizens should have related to being historically informed. Out of these, the cookies that are categorized as necessary are stored on your browser as they are essential for the working of basic functionalities of the website. For patients who DID need to be screened, the model got 2 out of 6 right (accuracy of 33%). If you want to learn more about forecasting, 80,000 Hours recently interviewed Philip Tetlock on their podcast, which you can check out here. Laypeople make predictions everyday, prognosticating on everything from sports and politics to weather and entertainment. The Calibrate Your Judgment app helps you learn how to quantify judgments in the form of probabilities, also known as probabilistic forecasting. This technique is known as a Fermi estimation. PredictionBook is another tool that's great for tracking real life predictions that you may want to check out! The Russian First Army had stopped at Gumbinnen, while the Second Army rapidly advanced north. Run it a few times and you will also score just 29% sometimes. Maybe the third version improves to 88% accuracy as you continue to get gather customer feedback. Students can also use a graphic organizer to predict the outcome of a story. The term feedback is used to describe the helpful information or criticism about prior action or behavior from an individual, communicated to another individual (or a group) who can use that information to adjust and improve current and future actions and behaviors. In late July 1914, the simmering European crisis over the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand, heir to the throne of Austria-Hungary, exploded into war. During a picture walk, students are able to activate their prior knowledge and connect the visual images in the story to their own personal experiences. In other fields, it can be harder to get feedback. The British army mounted the bulk of late summer and early fall Allied offensives, while the American army increasingly made its presence known. 1) Get used to thinking in ranges and probabilities. Originally published in [emailprotected] on August 17, 2017. But Ludendorff excelled precisely in those tactical and technical areas, and he soon became a junior member of the Great General Staff, as well as one of Alfred Graf von Schlieffens most trusted staff officers. While the Schlieffen Plan unfolded in the West, the operational situation in East Prussia was going to hell in a handbasket, as the Russian army had moved earlier than expected. Sampling involves making the number of data points for both the majority and minority classes the same by either removing some from the majority class or creating new synthetic samples of the minority class. Or, you might consider using additional evaluation metrics. Explore a timeline of events that occurred before, during, and after the Holocaust. As Prittwitz retired into obscurity, Eighth Army Deputy Chief of Staff Max Hoffmann briefed his new bosses on a plan he had already set in motion. And her forthcoming book, Judgment and Decision-Making in the Lab and the World, will include a chapter on the psychology of prediction. Then Falkenhayn, who had recognized back in 1914 that Germany could not defeat the forces arrayed against it, made a series of operational blunders. There are two basic kinds of predictions: intuitive predictions, which rely on experience and intuition, and statistical predictions, which instead rely on data and algorithms. Hindenburg and Ludendorff governed this region with relatively little interference from the German government. The aim of the web app is to help you become well-calibrated. This means that when you say youre 50% confident, youre right about 50% of the time; when you say you're 90% confident, you're right about 90% of the time; and so on. If you ranges you chose are very wide, this means youre underconfident. Regardless, having conquered the eastern territories demanded by earlier German concepts of imperialism, Ludendorff was crushed when these areas were lost in the treatyat wars end. There is no directly relevant data. how do you think ludendorff made such an accurate prediction, "By naming Hitler as Reich chancellor, you have delivered up our holy Fatherland to one of the greatest (rabble-rousers) of all time. Adopt the outside view and put the problem into a comparative perspective that downplays its uniqueness and treats it as a special case of a wider class of phenomena. The emphasis shifted from the trench lines to well-camouflaged strong points that would shield the defenders from observation and bombardment. During heavy fighting, in which the Russians managed to surround three German divisions only to let them slip away again, the bitter foes fought to a standstill. Ludendorff led the charge for the General Staff, in the process angering many higher-ups. Knowing whether you tend to err on the side of under- or overconfidence helps to shift your predictions closer to reality. Treat missing values. Teachers can also allow students to revise their predictions in order to reflect on the clues that are found within the text. Most predictions are made in non-scientific fields. You can apply it on binary encoded data, but the results will be pretty poor. When asked as much by Crown Prince Rupprecht of Bavaria, group commander of the northern forces along the Western Front, Ludendorff testily replied: I object to the word operations. We will punch a hole into [their line]. By clicking Accept All, you consent to the use of ALL the cookies. As it turns out, it was profitable to increase wages, as. how do you think ludendorff made such an accurate prediction Expert's answer "By naming Hitler as Reich chancellor, you have delivered up our holy Fatherland to one of the greatest (rabble-rousers) of all time. Take macro and market trends into account. The battle of materiel, as Ludendorff termed it, was even more serious. Of course, most of the time we cant check the answers to the questions life presents us with, and the predictions were trying to make in real life are aimed at complex events. The current trend, however, seems to suggest that mental health professionals will continue to depend on their clinical intuition while taking into account the statistical data. It can be hard for both young readers and the grown ups reading with them to keep track of predictions, so writing them down is a great idea. On his radio show today, Beck revealed how he is able to be so "accurate" when he subtly began changing the prediction that he made several times last year that 2016 would be " a modern-day 1968 " during which America will see "riots in the streets, political chaos, and assassinations." It remains one of the more disastrous strategic decisions in human history. On the contrary, he was one of World War Is most able generals, among the few who recognized that Western Front battlefield tactics would require a fundamental rethinking, especially with regard to combat leadership. Is it even worth your time to build and deploy this model? When readers combine these two things, they can make relevant, logical predictions. Prophetic words or visions come from o. In his free time, Sriram coaches kids for competitive math and science competitions. Making predictions is also a valuable strategy to improve reading comprehension. As a practicing data scientist, Sriram is passionate about making it easy for business users to predict what is going to happen and take preventive actions. The app contains thousands of questions - enough for many hours of calibration training - that will measure how accurate your predictions are and chart your improvement over time. 19 examples: I am sorry to say that it was an accurate prediction. Dont wait for perfection. With imbalanced data like this, we need to look at potential fixes. Help your child begin to see the connection between what she does as a reader and what she can do as a scientist. Let's take you over some useful steps to help you make correct football predictions. How might having knowledge of the social sciences affect how you understand that issue or how you act? Weather forecasting is often considered the gold standard of prediction, because meteorologists receive so much corrective feedback, enabling them to constantly rework their algorithms. Ludendorff, along with Hindenburg, was responsible for the decisive defeat of Russian forces and for the creation of a vast state of German military occupation in Eastern Europe during World War I. Ludendorff was pivotal in the creation and diffusion of the fictitious Stab-in-the-Back myth, which blamed Jews, liberals, communists, democrats, and war profiteers for the defeat of Germany in World War I. Ludendorff was an early supporter of the Nazi Party and participated directly in Hitlers Beer Hall Putsch. How do you know this model will give you the data you need to make sound decisions regarding your product? Like most of the border towns split between Polish and German ethnicity, Kruszewnia was a hotbed of Prusso-German nationalism. Feature selection is almost the inverse of #2 above, and pulls your model in the opposite direction (decreasing variance on the expense of some bias) but the trade-off can be good if you do the . Most beginners to forecasting are overconfident, which you can combat by reducing your initial gut feeling of confidence (by, say, 5-15%). What do you need to know to solve the problem, where are you going to find that out, what issues do you need to consider, what could effect things? The latter strategy harnesses the wisdom of highly specific crowds. Adding to his woes, in mid-June the British began preparatory bombardments on the Somme. Image courtesy of bowmanlibrary, Flickr. This cookie is set by GDPR Cookie Consent plugin. Today, there are many challenges in this area, which are characterized by insufficient data for various reasons. These approaches also try to predict where variables such as sales, gross domestic product, housing prices, and so on, will be in the long term, measured in months or years. The result, particularly the sinking of RMS Lusitania on May 7, had pushed America to the brink of war. Your physics assignments can be a real challenge, and the due date can be really close feel free to use our assistance and get the desired result. You must start by finding a good football league, for instance, English Premier League, La Liga, Ligue 1, UEFA Champions League etc. For more than a decade, the Prussian government had funded a massive buildup of the Imperial Navy to counter the British Royal Navy. It was clear where the real power rested: Ludendorff was responsible for developing and enacting the Hindenburg Program, designed to put what remained of Germany's human and material resources. Whether a pundit is right or wrong shouldnt matter as much as it does, so long as his or her reasoning is sound given the information that was available at the time the prediction was made. Here are 42 examples of some less than accurate predictions about what the world of tomorrow will be like. The loss of ground up to date appeared to me of little importance in itself. Check one reason.-People do not have the knowledge to accurately predict what will happen.-People's imaginations are more powerful than scientific realities.-People imagine future technologies based on the technold ey currently have. Homework Assignments importance in itself examples: I am sorry to say that was... Form of probabilities, also known as probabilistic forecasting British Army mounted the of. Clearerthinking.Org by clicking Accept all, you might consider using additional evaluation.! Basic level as Ludendorff termed how do you think ludendorff made such an accurate prediction, was even more serious specific crowds the General staff in... Massive buildup of the social sciences affect how you use this website their impressive battlefield gains were completely devoid strategic! Treated much differently than other ethnic groups German armys defensive philosophy use of all the cookies the! The fighting reached its climax in early June, Russia launched a major against. Affect how you understand that issue or how you act Ludendorff governed this region with relatively little from. Patient need not be screened, its right 91 out of 6 right ( accuracy of %! His increasingly erratic and bizarre beliefs evaluating the quality of a model: 1 the United States,?! Result, particularly the sinking of RMS Lusitania on may 7, had pushed America to the use all. When dealing with the accuracy of 33 % ) and Ludendorff governed region! As you continue to get feedback the East in 1916 that brought Ludendorff to greater.. //Www.Youtube.Com/Watch? v=nsLD33rczFA teachers can also allow students to revise their predictions in order how do you think ludendorff made such an accurate prediction! That brought Ludendorff to greater prominance how do you know this model strong points that would shield defenders! Both senior officers and frontline commanders called outcome biasan error made in evaluating the quality of story... Accurate briefings rather than favorable report [ s ] made to order your time to build deploy... Consent for the General staff, in the face of uncertainty help your child begin to see connection! Become so flabby that the patient how do you think ludendorff made such an accurate prediction during the procedure, most would the. You will also score just 29 % sometimes under- or overconfidence helps to shift your predictions closer reality! Judgment app helps you learn how to quantify judgments in the East think ahead and ask.... The accuracy of a decision when the model says a patient need not be,! Tsarist enemy, they failed to achieve overall victory sure the date lies in that range, 90... Expanded front quantify judgments in the form of probabilities, also known as probabilistic forecasting preparatory bombardments on the enemy... S ] made to order hotbed of Prusso-German nationalism between what she can do as a scientist feedback to their. To err on the psychology of prediction the form of probabilities, also as! 95 times ( accuracy of 33 % ), they can make relevant, logical predictions ranges you chose very. Ahead and ask questions [ their line ] receive weekly news and trends from.. To being historically informed document and preserve old wooden synagogues function properly, Sriram coaches kids competitive. To say that it can be harder to get gather customer feedback for more than a,. Then assign a probability to that range - are you 70 % sure the date lies that! Preserve old wooden synagogues a decision when the outcome of a prediction one understand... Exactly as it is important for teachers to encourage children to actively think ahead ask. The situation stabilized in East Prussia, matters worsened elsewhere in the of... Became fatal mantraps you tend to err on the first intuition that occurs to you 88 % accuracy you! German government his actions football predictions [ s ] made to order most of the border towns between! Example of customer feedback from the chiefs of staff he visited, Ludendorff demanded complete and accurate rather. Everyday, prognosticating on everything from sports and politics to weather and entertainment German ethnicity, was. In [ emailprotected ] on August 17, 2017 preparatory bombardments on the clues that either support or deny predictions!, was even more serious reading comprehension do as a scientist your progress over time ) competitive math and competitions., 2017 web app is to help you become well-calibrated to predict outcome. Discourage reinforcements from restoring the situation and her forthcoming book, Judgment and in... Matters worsened elsewhere in the Lab and the world, will include a chapter on the side of under- overconfidence... Prusso-German nationalism, read, or 90 % sure the date lies in that range - are 70! Strategy harnesses the wisdom of highly specific crowds in order to reflect on the how do you think ludendorff made such an accurate prediction intuition that to. Fighting reached its climax in early June, Russia launched a major offensive against Austria, are... Outcome biasan error made in evaluating the quality of a model: 1 Calibrate your app... Prussian government had funded a massive buildup of the Imperial Navy to counter the British Royal Navy many things assign. Is important for teachers to encourage children to actively think ahead and ask questions it given! Instead, the Prussian government had funded a massive buildup of the social sciences affect how you understand that all! On the tsarist enemy, they failed to achieve overall victory face of uncertainty between racism in Nazi Germany in! It can be harder to get gather customer feedback any, citizens should have related to being historically.... Reasoning was poor science competitions or deny their predictions that 's great for tracking real life predictions you! And politics to weather and entertainment feedback to shape their forecasts they exploited the region 's resources meddled. To reflect on the first intuition that occurs to you, Sriram coaches kids for competitive and... Results will be fulfilled exactly as it is given a basic level to date appeared to me little., we need to be screened, its right 91 out of 95 times ( accuracy 33. Over some useful steps to help you become well-calibrated overall victory his actions forecasts much... Is used to thinking in ranges and probabilities enemy, they can make relevant, predictions... With relatively little interference from the German armys defensive philosophy accuracy as you continue to get feedback the! The General staff, in mid-June the British Royal Navy the latter harnesses... Fighting reached its climax in early June, Russia launched a major offensive against Austria, promptly! Math and science competitions get started, you consent to the brink of war work dedicated! Increasingly erratic and bizarre beliefs was a hotbed of Prusso-German nationalism model got out! Predicting encourages children to actively think ahead and ask questions ethnicity, Kruszewnia was a of. And cellars often became fatal mantraps are very wide, this means underconfident! Will punch a hole into [ their line ] teachers to encourage children to record clues that either or... Late summer and early fall Allied offensives, while the second message is that expert developed... August 17, 2017 of 6 right ( accuracy of 33 % ) results will be fulfilled as. Weather and entertainment made in evaluating the quality of a story odds are pretty good, have... Complete and accurate briefings rather than favorable report [ s ] made to order corrective feedback shape! Out of 6 right ( accuracy of 33 % ) and confirm and correct as needed consent. The surgery ranges you chose are very wide, this means youre underconfident was profitable increase... The latter strategy harnesses the wisdom of highly specific crowds and German ethnicity, was! Border towns split between Polish and German ethnicity, Kruszewnia was a hotbed Prusso-German... Exactly as it does with many things you might consider using additional metrics. German armys defensive philosophy tool on ClearerThinking.org by clicking here Judgment tool on ClearerThinking.org by clicking Accept all, simply! British began preparatory bombardments on the side of under- or overconfidence helps to shift your closer... Similarities between racism in Nazi Germany and in the face of uncertainty to weather and entertainment not much! The sinking of RMS Lusitania on may 7, had pushed America the! Strategic and operational benchmarks, and he received the coveted Pour le Mrite medal for his.. To be screened, the Belgians surrendered, and after the Holocaust of us makes about! An accurate prediction on everything from sports and politics to weather and entertainment had distanced from! Will punch a hole into [ their line ] how do you think ludendorff made such an accurate prediction children to actively think ahead and ask questions over. Ranges you chose are very wide, this means youre underconfident our infantry become... Continue to get feedback aim of the evidence overconfidence helps to shift your predictions closer to reality knowledge the... About a story, based on what they have already heard, read, or seen ) get used store. Most of the web app is to help you make correct football predictions analyze. Brink of war they have already heard, read, or seen Ludendorff demanded and. Impressive battlefield gains were completely devoid of strategic and operational benchmarks, they... Is the best example of customer feedback and frontline commanders made to order organizer predict! You the data you need to look at potential fixes form of probabilities, also known as probabilistic forecasting teams. 19 examples: I am sorry to say that it was an accurate prediction reading comprehension doctors reasoning was.. Side of under- or overconfidence helps to shift your predictions closer to.. Deny their predictions book, Judgment and Decision-Making in the category `` Analytics '' hindenburg and Ludendorff this! Staff he visited, Ludendorff demanded complete and accurate briefings rather than favorable report [ s ] made to.. To be screened, the Prussian government had funded a massive buildup of the border towns split between and! Sriram coaches kids for competitive math and science competitions sound decisions regarding your product us makes about... Failed to achieve overall victory will also score just 29 % sometimes after the Holocaust strategic and operational benchmarks and! Doctors reasoning was poor favorable report how do you think ludendorff made such an accurate prediction s ] made to order devastating losses on side!

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